New safety model for the commercial human spaceflight industry

The aviation and space domains have safety guidelines and recommended practices for Design Organisations (DOs) and Operators alike. In terms of Aerospace DOs there are certification criteria to meet and to demonstrate compliance there are Advisory Circulars or Acceptable Means of Compliance to follow. Additionally there are guidelines such as Aerospace Recommended Practices (ARP), Military Standards (MIL-STD 882 series) and System Safety Handbooks to follow in order to identify and manage failure conditions. In terms of Operators there are FAA guidelines and a useful ARP that details many tools and techniques in understanding Operator Safety Risks. However there is currently no methodology for linking the DO and Operator safety efforts. In the space domain NASA have provided safety standards and guidelines to follow and also within Europe there are European Co-operation of Space Standardization (ECSS) to follow. Within the emerging Commercial Human Spaceflight Industry, the FAA’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation has provided hazard analysis guidelines. However all of these space domain safety documents are based on the existing aerospace methodology and once again, there is no link between the DO and Operator’s safety effort. This paper addresses the problematic issue and presents a coherent methodology of joining up the System Safety effort of the DOs to the Operator Safety Risk Management such that a ‘Total System’ approach is adopted. Part of the rationale is that the correct mitigation (control) can be applied within the correct place in the accident sequence. Also this contiguous approach ensures that the Operator is fully aware of the safety risks (at the accident level) and therefore has an appreciation of the Total System Risk. The authors of this paper contend that it is better practice to have a fully integrated safety model as opposed to disparate requirements or guidelines. Our methodology is firstly to review ‘best practice’ approaches from the aviation and space industries, and then to integrate these approaches into a contiguous safety model for the commercial human spaceflight industry

Aircraft system safety : a new approach to assessing in-service performance

Increasingly stringent equipment performance and reliability requirements are being specified to the aerospace industry by aircraft manufacturers, driven by the expectations of both certification authorities and operators. The reality is that aircraft system and equipment reliability in service can fail to meet the design expectations. This thesis details the problem areas within the current analysis process, describing the procedures currently in use and showing what can go wrong. It goes on to propose action that can be taken to ensure safety levels are maintained and details a new approach that is unique to this thesis. The author has devised a new System Safety Compliance Model (SSCM) for ensuring that aircraft system safety standards can be better maintained. Evolved from his earlier highly successful database system at TRW Lucas Aerospace, SSCM will be: - Demonstrably cost effective - A step change in process capability, offering "something new" - Instantly accessible at shop floor level to everyone in the business - Easy to use and as automated as possible to minimise staff training requirement - Capable of performing instant re-assessment of safety performance down to system level and including consideration of a variety of operating environments and conditions - The industry standard repository of component reliability data - "Centrally" owned by a world-wide recognised industry body SSCM is the first system to operate in such a way, and will ensure that the original system safety analysis performed at the design stage, is continually assessed for accuracy throughout its in-service life. If the new methods detailed in this thesis are adopted and acted upon, there is a high probability of a reduction in the risk of aircraft systematic failure in service, leading to increased safety in aviation. The model can be equally applied to other areas of transportations uch as railways

Determinants of flammability in savanna grass species

1. Tropical grasses fuel the majority of fires on Earth. In fire-prone landscapes, enhanced flammabil-ity may be adaptive for grasses via the maintenance of an open canopy and an increase in spa-tiotemporal opportunities for recruitment and regeneration. In addit ion, by burning intensely butbriefly, high flammability may protect resprouting buds from lethal temperatures. Despite thesepotential benefits of high flammability to fire-prone grasses, variation in flammability among grassspecies, and how trait differences underpin this variation, remains unknown.2. By burning leaves and plant parts, we experimentally determined how five plant traits (biomassquantity, biomass density, biomass moisture content, leaf surface-area-to-volume ratio and leaf effec-tive heat of combustion) combined to determine the three components of flammability (ignitability,sustainability and combustibility) at the leaf and plant scales in 25 grass species of fire-pr one SouthAfrican grasslands at a time of peak fire occurrence. The influence of evolutionary history onflammability was assessed based on a phylogeny built here for the study species.3. Grass speci es differed significantly in all components of flammability. Accounting for evolution-ary history helped to explain patterns in leaf-scale combustibility and sustainability. The five mea-sured plant traits predicted components of flammability, particularly leaf ignitability and plantcombustibility in which 70% and 58% of variation, respectively, could be explained by a combina-tion of the traits. Total above-ground biomass was a key drive r o f combustibility and sustainabi litywith high biomass species burning more intensely and for longer, and producing the highest pre-dicted fire spread rates. Moisture content was the main influence on ignitability, where speci es withhigher moisture conten ts took longer to ignite and once alight burnt at a slower rate. Bioma ss den-sity, leaf surface-area-to-volume ratio and leaf effective heat of combustion were weaker predictorsof flammability components.4. Synthesis. We demonstrate that grass flammability is predicted from easily measurable plant func-tional traits and is influenced by evolutionary history with some components showing phylogeneticsignal. Grasses are not homogenous fuels to fire. Rather, species differ in functional traits that inturn demonstrably influence flammability. This diver sity is consistent with the idea that flammabilitymay be an adaptive trait for grasses of fire-prone ecosystems

Observational Constraints of Modified Chaplygin Gas in Loop Quantum Cosmology

We have considered the FRW universe in loop quantum cosmology (LQC) model filled with the dark matter (perfect fluid with negligible pressure) and the modified Chaplygin gas (MCG) type dark energy. We present the Hubble parameter in terms of the observable parameters $\Omega_{m0}$, $\Omega_{x0}$ and $H_{0}$ with the redshift $z$ and the other parameters like $A$, $B$, $C$ and $\alpha$. From Stern data set (12 points), we have obtained the bounds of the arbitrary parameters by minimizing the $\chi^{2}$ test. The best-fit values of the parameters are obtained by 66%, 90% and 99% confidence levels. Next due to joint analysis with BAO and CMB observations, we have also obtained the bounds of the parameters ($B,C$) by fixing some other parameters $\alpha$ and $A$. From the best fit of distance modulus $\mu(z)$ for our theoretical MCG model in LQC, we concluded that our model is in agreement with the union2 sample data.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures, Accepted in EPJC. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:astro-ph/0311622 by other author

Stability of gold nanowires at large Au-Au separations

The unusual structural stability of gold nanowires at large separations of gold atoms is explained from first-principles quantum mechanical calculations. We show that undetected light atoms, in particular hydrogen, stabilize the experimentally observed structures, which would be unstable in pure gold wires. The enhanced cohesion is due to the partial charge transfer from gold to the light atoms. This finding should resolve a long-standing controversy between theoretical predictions and experimental observations.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Progression from external pilot to definitive randomised controlled trial : a methodological review of progression criteria reporting

Objectives: Prespecified progression criteria can inform the decision to progress from an external randomised pilot trial to a definitive randomised controlled trial. We assessed the characteristics of progression criteria reported in external randomised pilot trial protocols and results publications, including whether progression criteria were specified a priori and mentioned in prepublication peer reviewer reports. Study design: Methodological review. Methods: We searched four journals through PubMed: British Medical Journal Open, Pilot and Feasibility Studies, Trials and Public Library of Science One. Eligible publications reported external randomised pilot trial protocols or results, were published between January 2018 and December 2019 and reported progression criteria. We double data extracted 25% of the included publications. Here we report the progression criteria characteristics. Results: We included 160 publications (123 protocols and 37 completed trials). Recruitment and retention were the most frequent indicators contributing to progression criteria. Progression criteria were mostly reported as distinct thresholds (eg, achieving a specific target; 133/160, 83%). Less than a third of the planned and completed pilot trials that included qualitative research reported how these findings would contribute towards progression criteria (34/108, 31%). The publications seldom stated who established the progression criteria (12/160, 7.5%) or provided rationale or justification for progression criteria (44/160, 28%). Most completed pilot trials reported the intention to proceed to a definitive trial (30/37, 81%), but less than half strictly met all of their progression criteria (17/37, 46%). Prepublication peer reviewer reports were available for 153/160 publications (96%). Peer reviewer reports for 86/153 (56%) publications mentioned progression criteria, with peer reviewers of 35 publications commenting that progression criteria appeared not to be specified. Conclusions: Many external randomised pilot trial publications did not adequately report or propose prespecified progression criteria to inform whether to proceed to a future definitive randomised controlled trial

SPIDER: Probing the Early Universe with a Suborbital Polarimeter

We evaluate the ability of SPIDER, a balloon-borne polarimeter, to detect a divergence-free polarization pattern ("B-modes") in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). In the inflationary scenario, the amplitude of this signal is proportional to that of the primordial scalar perturbations through the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. We show that the expected level of systematic error in the SPIDER instrument is significantly below the amplitude of an interesting cosmological signal with r=0.03. We present a scanning strategy that enables us to minimize uncertainty in the reconstruction of the Stokes parameters used to characterize the CMB, while accessing a relatively wide range of angular scales. Evaluating the amplitude of the polarized Galactic emission in the SPIDER field, we conclude that the polarized emission from interstellar dust is as bright or brighter than the cosmological signal at all SPIDER frequencies (90 GHz, 150 GHz, and 280 GHz), a situation similar to that found in the "Southern Hole." We show that two ~20-day flights of the SPIDER instrument can constrain the amplitude of the B-mode signal to r<0.03 (99% CL) even when foreground contamination is taken into account. In the absence of foregrounds, the same limit can be reached after one 20-day flight.Comment: 29 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables; v2: matches published version, flight schedule updated, two typos fixed in Table 2, references and minor clarifications added, results unchange